by Charley James

The website fivethirtyeight.com reports John McCain is making no progress in his pursuit of the White House. Its model now projects Barack Obama winning 351 electoral votes to John McCain’s 187. Both numbers are unchanged from yesterday. 

Nate Silver, who runs fivethirtyeight and developed the incredibly complicated set of regressions that analyzes all of the polls every day and then runs up to 2,000 simulations each night before putting up a new post in the morning, gives three reasons why polls keep providing good news for Obama.

1. There is no evidence of polls tightening in state numbers. If state polls aren’t showing movement toward McCain, then it is probably the case that any perceived movement in the national polls is sampling noise. If anything, state polls are showing movement toward Obama on balance, not just in battleground states like Virginia but also in non-battlegrounds as diverse as New York, Oklahoma, Oregon and Arizona.

2. Obama has begun to run up the score in some non-battlegrounds. Polls in states like Washington, New York and California are now showing very large leads for Barack Obama. As some of these states have large populations, they are providing a bit of cushion to Obama in his popular vote margin. Barack Obama has also gained ground in some red states like Arizona and Georgia. 

3. We are approaching a pollster consensus in some battlegrounds. The range of state polls has narrowed. Missouri and North Carolina now look like true toss-ups. Florida looks like a toss-up, leaning Obama. Ohio and Nevada lean clearly toward Obama, but McCain remains within striking distance. Colorado and Virginia lean more strongly toward Obama and McCain may not be within striking distance. Pennsylvania has failed to tighten. Likewise, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa appear safe for Obama.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen?s daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday again shows Obama attracting 51% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 46%; McCain has not topped Obama since two weeks after the Republican convention. Battleground state polls released yesterday show Obama leading in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.

Perhaps more gloomy for Republicans, after John McCain pulled even in Florida a week ago, Obama is back on top this week. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama with 51% of the vote and McCain 47%. This is the fourth time in five weeks that Obama has a single digit lead over McCain. Last week was the exception with McCain up by a single point. McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of the state’s voters and Obama by 55%, a statistical tie.