Nuclear Options Have Unpredictable Fallout
By Denis Campbell • May 22nd, 2008 • Category: FeaturesWe wrote about the so-called “nuclear option,” Senator Hillary Clinton is hoping to invoke during the 31 May Convention Rules and By-Law committee meeting. Simply, she wants to use her 13-supporting delegates to push through the seating of the entire Florida and Michigan delegations at full strength.
Florida and Michigan did not play by party rules and pushed their primaries to before 05 February (Super Tuesday) and even wanted to usurp New Hampshire and Iowa’s traditional 1st in the nation primaries because the nominee is usually known by Super Tuesday. The party said don’t do it and indeed in 2004 both states were threatened with the loss of half their delegates if they moved then. They decided to play chicken this year and scheduled their primaries in January.
My six year old does this… you say don’t do something, she does it and then is upset when there are consequences. The analogy is pretty close here.
So the Democratic National Committee took away their entire slate of delegates and asked the candidates not to campaign in either state. They did and indeed Barack Obama and John Edwards removed their names from the ballot in Michigan. Hillary won in both states where no one campaigned and now needs those delegates questionably won, so thus the nuclear option.
At this writing most blogs and analysts are near unanimous in agreement that any nuclear attempt will backfire as those loyal to both Obama and DNC Chair Vermont former Governor Howard Dean will not vote for full seating. Instead they are looking at a variety of options and everyone is confident a solution will come out of the meeting and… Mrs. Clinton will still be in second place.
Last night on Countdown, Keith Olbermann jokingly said, as he introduced actor Kevin Spacey and his HBO film Recount, that “the odds are now 7:5 that something will happen in the next ten days that Mrs. Clinton can point to as proof her candidacy needs to continue despite there being no mathematical chance to win and her insistence that only she can win in November.”
Unfortunately for her, all polls and pundits say that because Obama has had so much money, organisation skills and volunteers, he has a solid 50-state organisation and been so battle tested in these primaries, he has created “an invincible election juggernaut.” The Telegraph in the UK said this this morning on their website.
So a nuclear blast’s fallout could indeed be fatal for a Senator’s future. The question is which Senator and how bad will the fallout be?
She is now alienating people she needs to work with and if she wants to be President in our lifetime, it would be best to quickly become humble and gracious. Again, not likely in our lifetime.
Denis Campbell is a journalist, author and businessman.
From a farmhouse in South Wales overlooking the Irish Sea, he and his wife run Target Point Ltd, an EU-wide strategy firm working with global businesses across a dozen industries on clarifying and executing strategy and changing their culture and focus. As a businessman living in the EU for 10-years, writing was a passionate hobby. He began blogging in 2006 with a number of pieces examining the corrupt climate of deception in the billion dollar spiritual self-help industry and re-published collected business, political and lifestyle features published across the EU since 2001. It has since grown into The Vadimus Post, from the Latin Quo Vadimus – where are we headed? (…and do we know why?), a daily e-magazine for those wanting to dig deeper, learn more together and dialogue on the key issues of the day.
Thanks for visiting and feel free to let me know your thoughts and opinions.
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