Last year’s writer’s strike saw a shortened television season, cost $2.5 billion dollars (according to the LA Economic Development Corp.) and multiple Hollywood projects were placed on hold for four months over web residual payments to writers. The quality of television programming sank further as studios overloaded with so-called “reality” programming and 22-24 week seasons were shortened to 12-14. Here we go again?

Contracts with the actors expire today with the two unions SAG (Screen Actors Guild) and AFTRA (American Federation of Television and Radio Artists). SAG has 120,000 members, 35% of whom also belong to AFTRA. AFTRA played it sensible this spring and negotiated a contract similar to that of the Writer’s Guild for its 70,000 members. Not great and not exactly a pail of warm spit. As a famous Baltimore labour lawyer friend once said, “it’s a successful negotiation if both sides are unhappy at the end.” AFTRA members are currently voting on that contract, SAG is dug in for the long haul, working to defeat the contract through SPIN, both union heads are at each other’s throats and thus the worry.

The bigger worry is not for Will Smith or Miley Cyrus (although the Hannah Montana’s movie is the biggest project underway that is likely to be shuttered). They will not lose their houses over this strike. It’s the less than 10% of the members who make a living at their chosen trade that will suffer. Just as in the writer’s strike, the law of the jungle prevails. While elephants fight for a bigger share of the pie, the ants – the “below the line” actors and actresses – who are killed. Another lengthy strike would devastate series programming just now gearing up for its first full season in two years.

Studios instead make money with reality programming and 12-year old girls are  stage-Mommed (another term for pimped) to fit an image and get discovered vs. working their way up like most did before programs like American Idol and Dancing with the Stars made kids overnight successes. The end result is everyone watching thinks ‘if only I make it there, I don’t have to work as hard.’

The SAG contract runs out at 12:01 a.m. Tuesday. And in true Norma Rae style, their union leaders are trying to defeat the AFTRA contract which is being voted upon by its members. Simply, an accord with one union limits the result the second can get without strike action. Results are due by July 8th.

SAG is bitterly fighting and courting AFTRA as the stakes are high. “We have taken no steps to initiate a strike authorization vote by the members of Screen Actors Guild,” union president Alan Rosenberg said in a statement Sunday. “Any talk about a strike or a management lockout at this point is simply a distraction.”

That’s refreshing news to hear Alan. Why don’t we feel re-assured?

Everyone willing to go over the cliff with him?